Map the decision
We define the recurring decision, who owns it, the constraints that apply and the value at stake.
Engines for the decisions that matter
Fable connects the systems you already run to forecast what happens next, compare your options and recommend what to do now.
01EvidenceJoin the records held across your systems.02ForecastProject the outcome, its timing and its range.03DecisionRank each permitted action by its expected effect.
From five systems to one decision.
A worked example, with illustrative figures. The Project Margin Rescue Engine joins five systems, forecasts a project’s margin at completion and sets out the financial impact of each available action.
01Join the operating record
Five systems hold five versions of the same project. Fable reconciles them at the weekly cutoff and replaces the figure that is out of date.
Source recordsReconciled record
- ERP$4.12mHarbour East Ph2
- PSA1,960 hoursHE phase 2 delivery
- Billing$410kHarbour East, contract 2
- Procurement$0.94mHarbour E. works package
- PMO$5.63mHarbour East P2
Harbour East, phase 2Five identities resolved to one project
Contract value$6.80mContract
Cost to date$4.12mERP
Committed supplier cost$0.94mProcurement
Unbilled WIP$410kBilling
Unpriced variation$260kPSA hours outside contract scope
Estimate at completion$5.83m$5.63mPMO report, 6 weeks old
Matched onProject identity, contract, cost centre and period, with the most authoritative source kept for each figure.
02Forecast the outcome
Production models forecast margin at completion as a range, with the likely timing of a breach and what is driving it.
Margin at completion10th to 90th percentile range
18%15%12%9%6%
Likely breachWeeks 5 to 8Weekly estimatesMargin floor14.2% at the cutoffCentral forecast 10.4%
68%chance of finishing below the 12% floor
CutoffWeek 4Week 8Completion
Distribution
- 50% of outcomes
- 80% of outcomes
- Below the floor
DriversUnpriced variation, labour burn 9% above plan and supplier price drift.
03Recommend the next action
Each permitted action is priced in margin and cash. One is held back for lack of capacity, the rest are re-ranked and the top action is assigned an owner.
Permitted actionsPriced in margin and cash
RankAction and ownerMarginCash
- 01Submit change orderAwaiting ownerCommercial lead · due Friday+$190k to $260k margin+$140k cash within 45 days
- 0302Issue milestone invoiceFinanceNo margin change$310k cash, 3 weeks earlier
- 0403Restate estimate at completionProject controlsForecast restatedBefore month-end close
- 02HeldCorrect supplier costProcurementProcurement at capacity this week+$40k to $70k marginCash neutralReconsidered at the next cutoff
$0$100k$200k$300k
ConstraintProcurement is at capacity this week, so owner time goes to the highest-value permitted actions.
04Measure the result
Exposure, expected effect and observed outcome are tracked separately, so finance can attribute the result to the action. Each outcome is fed back into the models.
Value recordHarbour East, phase 2
Margin at completion, restated13.3%
+2.9 pointsAbove the 12% floor and inside the expected range
14%12%10%
Forecast 10.4%Expected range 12.8% to 13.7%Without the change orderSubmitted FridayAccepted at $228k+2.9 pts
CutoffNext cutoffTwo cutoffs later
- Exposure
- 10.4% forecast, 68% chance below the floor
- Expected effect
- +$190k to $260k margin
- Completion
- Submitted by the commercial lead on Friday
- Observed outcome
- Accepted at $228k, two cutoffs later
AttributionFinance recognises the $228k against the original exposure, and the outcome is returned to the engine.
Interactive demo · Commercial Fleet
See how a decision changes the operation.
Explore Fable’s Commercial Fleet workflow. Compare alternatives, inspect the evidence and constraints, and follow the consequences for capacity, contribution and cash.
Explore interactive demo
Fable’s Decision Engines address recurring choices across revenue, cash, supply, workforce and operations. This example follows commercial fleet allocation.
Built for the decisions that move margin, cash and capacity.
46 Decision Engines in ten families, built for UK and US upper-mid-market and enterprise operators. Each engine handles one recurring decision. The three flagship engines are shown below with worked examples.
Which active projects need intervention now to protect margin, cash timing or delivery economics?
Explore Project Margin Rescue- Operators
- Finance business partners, PMO leads, delivery directors and project controls.
- Cadence
- Weekly, with month-end escalation.
Billable work past its milestone, days
8%12%16%20%020406012% margin floor30-day billing limit01Harbour East10.4% at completion02Lumen Delivery44 days unbilled03Alder ControlsSupplier cost drift
- Project, sized by contract value
- Ranked for action
- After the recommended action
Forecast margin at completion
- 01
Harbour East, phase 2Decision now
Margin at completion 10.4% against a 12% floor
- Exposure
- $420kMargin
- Expected effect
- +$190k to $260kMargin
Submit change orderCommercial lead, due Friday
- 02
Lumen DeliveryAwaiting approval
Billable WIP held past its milestone
- Exposure
- $310kCash
- Expected effect
- $310kCash, 3 weeks earlier
Issue milestone invoiceFinance
- 03
Alder ControlsHeld
Supplier cost 6% above the purchase order
- Exposure
- $95kMargin
- Expected effect
- +$40k to $70kMargin
Correct supplier costProcurement. Procurement at capacity
- Exposure ranked
- $825k
- Margin recoverable
- $230k to $330k
- Cash brought forward
- $310k
Illustrative figures. Not client results.
Which cargo, charter structure, fixture timing, route and voyage plan should an open vessel take to maximise risk-adjusted net TCE and next-position value?
Explore Aster- Operators
- Chartering desks, heads of chartering, chief commercial officers and commercial operators.
- Cadence
- At each vessel opening and each material change in market, route or port, with a daily fleet review.
ZhanjiangLagos01Kittiwake BayOpen at Singapore02Sable CrestOpen at Santos03Ardent TernBerth queue at Qingdao
- Open vessel
- Recommended voyage
- Top-rate alternative
- Berth queue
01Kittiwake Bay, daily rate$1,200 a day below forecast
Counter at forecast$15,100Offer$13,900
$13k$14k$15k$16k
02Sable Crest, net TCE by voyage$72k apart
VoyageNext position
- 01
Kittiwake Bay, SupramaxDecision now
Open at Singapore. Offer $1,200 a day below the forecast rate
- Exposure
- $610kNet TCE
- Expected effect
- +$38k to $61kNet TCE
Counter at $15,100 a dayChartering desk, 4 hours
- 02
Sable Crest, UltramaxAwaiting approval
Open at Santos. The top rate leaves the vessel in a weak market
- Exposure
- $540kNet TCE
- Expected effect
- +$72kIncluding the next position
Fix the cargo to ZhanjiangHead of chartering
- 03
Ardent Tern, PanamaxMonitor
Qingdao berth wait forecast at 6 to 9 days
- Exposure
- $220kDelay and demurrage
- Next step
- Review at 18:00On the new queue forecast
Wait for the revised laycanOperations
- Exposure ranked
- $1.37m
- Net TCE uplift
- $110k to $133k
- Next-position value
- $46k
Illustrative figures. Not client results.
Which approved treatments should use each dated theatre and clinic session, and which qualified staff and paid cover should deliver that care, to complete the most care at the lowest payable staffing cost?
Explore Flow- Operators
- Hospital operations, theatre managers, workforce and staffing teams, finance and service leaders.
- Cadence
- Weekly for the session plan, and daily as patient readiness, cancellations and staff availability change.
This weekNext weekTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTheatre listsTheatre 1Theatre 2Theatre 3Theatre 401Theatre 5Theatre 6Ward night coverWard 5Ward 6Ward 702Outpatient clinicsClinic 1Clinic 203Clinic 3Clinic 4Clinic 5
- Share of the session booked
- Agency cover
- Recommended change
- 01
Theatre 4, Thursday afternoonDecision now
Two slots open, three approved patients ready
- Exposure
- $48kCare contribution
- Expected effect
- +$31k to $44kCompleted care
Fill from the waiting listTheatre manager, by 14:00
- 02
Ward 7, next week’s nightsAwaiting approval
Agency booked while bank shifts sit open
- Exposure
- $36kPaid cover
- Expected effect
- $18kAgency cost avoided
Offer the shifts to bank staffStaffing bureau, 48 hours
- 03
Clinic 2, Friday afternoonHeld
Low demand against a full paid session
- Exposure
- $12kPaid cover
- Expected effect
- $6kPaid cost avoided
Consolidate with Clinic 5Outpatients lead. Patient choice pending
- Exposure ranked
- $96k
- Care contribution
- $31k to $44k
- Paid cost avoided
- $24k
Illustrative figures. Not client results.
Decision Engines and business intelligence.
Business intelligence reports performance to date. A Decision Engine forecasts what happens next, tests each option against your constraints and recommends the action with the best expected result.
| Question | Business intelligence | Decision Engine |
|---|---|---|
| What happens next? | Reports performance to date | Forecasts the financial outcome, its timing and its range |
| What should we do? | Analysts compare options in spreadsheets | Recommends a specific action within your operating constraints |
| Which action comes first? | Prioritisation is left to individual judgement | Ranks feasible actions using cross-system records |
| Did it work? | Activity is reported with no link to the decision behind it | Attributes the financial and operational effect of each action, using machine learning models |
How it works.
Fable starts with the records your business already keeps and delivers each recommendation inside the workflow your team already uses.
Join the systems of record
Fable connects the ERP, CRM, billing, workforce, supply and asset records behind the decision.
Act on the recommendation
Your team receives a specific action, with its evidence, forecast range and expected effect, in the workflow it already uses.
Works with the systems you already run.
Fable reads from your ERP, CRM, billing, workforce, supply and asset systems and sends approved actions back through their own controls. Nothing is replaced, and each system stays the authority for its own records.
Systems we connect to- ERP and financeSAP S/4HANA · Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP +6
- CRM and quotingSalesforce Sales Cloud · Salesforce CPQ +2
- Projects and professional servicesOracle NetSuite OpenAir · Deltek +2
- Workforce and HRWorkday · SAP SuccessFactors +2
- Supply chain and warehouseManhattan Associates · Blue Yonder +3
- Procurement and spendCoupa · SAP Ariba
- Data platformsSnowflake · Databricks +3
Decision EngineReads the records behind each decision and returns approved actions to the system that owns them.
- Records read
- Approved actions written back
Product names are trademarks of their owners. Listing them does not imply a partnership or certification.
Common questions before a pilot.
Answers on pricing, implementation, approvals and hosting.
How is Fable priced?
In three steps. A paid, fixed-fee opportunity assessment comes first and ends in a projected annual uplift. Implementation and the first year of the licence then cost about 32.5% of that projected uplift, and the licence costs about 25% of it in each year after. Fees are fixed in your contract, and the exact figures depend on the deal.
Do we need to replace our systems of record?
No. Fable reads from the ERP, CRM, billing, workforce, supply and operational systems you already run, and sends approved actions back to them.
How long does implementation take?
An opportunity assessment and pilot take a few weeks. Full rollout depends on how many systems are involved and the state of their data, so we plan it once the pilot result is in.
What happens if the pilot does not improve the decision?
We stop or change the scope. Every stage ends with a decision point, and the pilot result against the agreed baseline decides whether we go to production.
Does Fable take actions without approval?
No. Any change to your systems needs a named permission and a person’s approval, and duplicate changes are blocked. Every recommendation, approval and action is recorded.
Where is our data hosted?
A Fable-managed deployment runs in its own AWS account, in the region you choose. For UK clients that is London by default. We can also deploy into your own infrastructure.
Start with the decision that matters most.
A live walkthrough of the software, set up around one of your team’s recurring decisions.