7 MIN · REVIEWED 2026-08-13
Why project-margin dashboards detect failure too late
A variance report describes what has already been recorded. The operating decision concerns what will happen next and which action can still change it.
Research on operational forecasting and intervention
How to reconstruct the decision record, forecast uncertain outcomes, choose an action and determine whether it worked.
8 MIN · REVIEWED 2026-08-13
Forecasting margin at completion under uncertainty
A single EAC conceals the range, timing and different failure paths that determine whether an intervention is worthwhile.
6 MIN · REVIEWED 2026-08-13
Predictive risk and intervention effect answer different questions
The highest-risk project may offer little scope for a useful intervention. Action value requires a separate estimate.
7 MIN · REVIEWED 2026-08-13
How range decisions affect cash, margin and service
A slow-moving line may tie up cash while protecting service or earning supplier funding. The decision must account for each effect.
9 MIN · REVIEWED 2026-08-13
What a production Decision Engine contains
A production Decision Engine connects an uncertain forecast to a permitted action and records the result.
6 MIN · REVIEWED 2026-08-13
What an opportunity assessment establishes
A Qualification of Opportunity Assessment should prevent a weak decision opportunity from becoming an expensive software project.
Apply this work to a live operating question.
An opportunity assessment tests it against your historical records, available actions and financial baseline.
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