Voyage chartering and fleet deployment
Aster
Which cargo, charter structure, fixture timing, route and voyage plan should an open vessel take to maximise risk-adjusted net TCE and next-position value?
- Open vessel
- Recommended voyage
- Top-rate alternative
- Berth queue
01Kittiwake Bay, daily rate$1,200 a day below forecast
$13k$14k$15k$16k
02Sable Crest, net TCE by voyage$72k apart
VoyageNext position
- 01
Kittiwake Bay, SupramaxDecision now
Open at Singapore. Offer $1,200 a day below the forecast rate
- Exposure
- $610kNet TCE
- Expected effect
- +$38k to $61kNet TCE
Counter at $15,100 a dayChartering desk, 4 hours
- 02
Sable Crest, UltramaxAwaiting approval
Open at Santos. The top rate leaves the vessel in a weak market
- Exposure
- $540kNet TCE
- Expected effect
- +$72kIncluding the next position
Fix the cargo to ZhanjiangHead of chartering
- 03
Ardent Tern, PanamaxMonitor
Qingdao berth wait forecast at 6 to 9 days
- Exposure
- $220kDelay and demurrage
- Next step
- Review at 18:00On the new queue forecast
Wait for the revised laycanOperations
- Exposure ranked
- $1.37m
- Net TCE uplift
- $110k to $133k
- Next-position value
- $46k
Illustrative figures. Not client results.
Why current systems fall short.
- Fixture, voyage, market, weather and port evidence sit in separate systems and inboxes, so no single record shows every option at the moment of decision.
- Voyage estimates assume one rate, speed and port time, which hides the range of outcomes and the downside.
- The highest-paying cargo can leave the vessel open in a weak market, and that next-position cost is rarely priced.
- Vessels are fixed one at a time, so the desk cannot see the opportunity cost across the fleet or its concentration in one lane or port.
The records it reads.
Each system remains the authority for its own data. The engine reconciles identities, units and dates at each decision cutoff and flags any conflict.
- 01Voyage management and fixture workflow
- 02Freight, forward freight and bunker market data
- 03AIS, weather and port congestion data
- 04Charter parties, demurrage and claims
- 05Noon reports and vessel performance
- 06ERP and voyage finance
What each part of the engine does.
Forecasts are settled before the options are scored. Permissions and hard constraints always take priority.
| Component | Responsibility | Effect on the decision |
|---|---|---|
| Machine learning | Forecast freight rates and cargo availability, whether a fixture will be accepted, voyage time and fuel burn under forecast weather, port waiting time, demurrage and off-hire, and where and when the vessel opens next. | Sets the forecast used to compare the options |
| Rules and constraints | Apply charter-party terms and laytime arithmetic, vessel, port and canal restrictions, counterparty limits and operating authority, and provide the fallback when a model cannot be used. | Removes actions that are not allowed or not feasible |
| Optimisation | Choose feasible cargo, charter and deployment actions across the fleet, without assuming two vessels can win the same next cargo. | Chooses the set of actions to take |
Actions it recommends.
Each recommendation names the action, its target, owner and deadline, the constraints it respects and the evidence that confirms completion.
- 01Fix a named cargo and counterparty at a stated rate, terms and validity
- 02Counter one commercial term, such as rate, laycan or demurrage
- 03Choose a voyage, trip time or period charter
- 04Wait until a set review time, with an expiry and a trigger
- 05Ballast or reposition the vessel to a named region
- 06Select the route, canal, speed, bunker port or fuel grade
How value is measured
Measures incremental net TCE per available vessel-day. Freight or hire, bunkers, port, canal and agency costs, ballast legs, commissions, delay, claims and next-position value are reconciled in one ledger, so no effect is counted twice.
How it runs in your operation.
The engine runs in a dedicated AWS account or your own infrastructure, connects to your systems and uses models calibrated on your records.
- Scope
- Every open vessel, at each opening and daily fleet review
- Value
- Net TCE per vessel-day, with the next position valued once
- Approval
- The chartering desk approves every offer before it is sent or confirmed
What the opportunity assessment checks.
Can fixture, voyage and market history improve the choice of cargo, terms and deployment for each open vessel, and can finance verify the result in net TCE?
What we need to see
- Openings, cargo opportunities, fixtures and voyages linked for each vessel opening
- Freight, bunker and market data as it stood at each decision, including cargoes declined or lost
- Voyage results reconciled to finance, including demurrage and claims
- A named chartering owner with authority to fix, counter, wait or reposition
When we would advise stopping
- Fixture and voyage outcomes cannot be reconstructed as they stood at each decision
- Market data cannot be licensed or used at the point of decision
- Finance cannot verify the net TCE outcome
Assess this decision in your operation.
The opportunity assessment looks at your historical records, the actions available, who has authority to act and the value at stake, before a pilot begins.
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