Reporting does not resolve the decision
A dashboard can report budget, actual cost, committed cost and the current forecast accurately while leaving the weekly decision unanswered. Finance and delivery still need to decide which project needs attention, which action is available and what that action is expected to change.
The distinction matters when forecast revisions, invoices, change orders and supplier corrections compete for the same limited PMO and finance capacity.
Use only what was known at the time
A defensible forecast reconstructs the records available when the decision was made. Later outcomes can be used to train and evaluate the model, but they cannot appear among the inputs to an earlier forecast.
The forecast should show the range of possible margin and cash outcomes. Contract terms, permissions and operating capacity then determine which actions remain available.
Test the action separately from the risk
A high probability of margin erosion does not prove that revising an EAC, issuing an invoice or submitting a change order will protect value. Each action needs its own expected effect, uncertainty, completion test and outcome period.
That is the difference between reporting risk and learning which intervention works.